外汇交易警言(3)

　　要想到你能够输多少钱，交易前就想好风险回报比例。尽力做到可能的盈利要三倍于可能的亏损。

 

　　77. If it appears that lots of bulls are long ， be nervous!

　　如果看上去有很多多头在买，你就需要警惕起来。

 

　　78. If you have a good lead in the market and all the news seems too good to be true you'd better take profits.

　　如果你在市场上领先一筹，而且所有的消息都好得难以置信，你最好是收回你的盈利，出市走人。

 

　　79. The news always follows the market.

　　新闻总是尾随市场之后。

 

　　80. There is only one side to the market; and it is not the bull side or the bear side, but the right side.

　　市场只有一种，不是牛市或熊市，而是正确之市。

 

　　81. A man must believe in himself and his judgment if he expects to make a living at this game.

　　如果有人想在这场游戏里生存，他必须相信自己和自己的判断力。

 

　　82. It is the big swing that makes the big money for you. "It was never my wishing that made the big money for me. It was always my sitting tight." Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. The market does not beat them. They beat themselves. You must have the courage of your convictions and the intelligent patience to sit tight.

　　大浪潮为你创造大笔财富。"为我带来大笔财富的从来就不是我的祈求。它从来都是因为我坐着不动。"能够既正确又坐着不动的人是不多见的。市场打不败他们，打败他们的是他们自己。一定要有坚韧的勇气和智慧的耐心，你才做得到坐着不动。

 

　　83. To buy on a rising market is a most comfortable way of buying. Buy on a scale up. Sell on a scale down.

　　最不让人担心的买进方法是在一个上升的市场里买进。买高卖低。

 

　　84. Commodities are never too high to begin buying or too low to begin selling. But after the initial transaction, don't make a second unless the first shows a profit.

　　商品没有高到不该再买的时候，也没有低到不该再卖的时候。不过，在最初的转手后，除非第一手交易获利了，不要再做第二手。

 

　　85. Realize that the big money comes in the big swing. Whatever might seem to give a big swing, its initial impulse, the fact is that no matter who opposes it, the swing must inevitably run as far and as fast and as long as the impelling forces determine.

　　要意识到大笔钱来自大浪潮。无论什么是看上去会掀起大浪潮的，它最初的鼓动，事实是，不管是谁对抗它，大浪潮都无可避免地必然按照推动它的力量所决定的速度，冲到推动它的力量所决定的远处。 

 

　　86. In the long run, commodity prices are governed but by one law ， the economic law of demand and supply.

　　从长远来看，决定商品价格的只有一条法则，供与求的经济法则。

 

　　87. A loss never bothers me after I take it. I forget it overnight. But being wrong and not taking the loss ， that is what does the damage to the pocket book and to the soul.

　　当我接受了一手输了的交易，我就不再为它烦恼。隔了一夜我就忘了。但是，如果我做得不对，不肯接受我输了的事实，这才会既对记账本也对心灵造成损害。

 

　　88. It is profitable to study your mistakes.

　　研究你的错误会给你带来利润。

 

　　89. Of all speculative blunders, there are few greater than selling what shows a profit and keeping what shows a loss.

　　在所有为投机而犯的愚蠢的错误里，很少有比卖掉会赚钱、买进要赔钱的更愚蠢的了。

 

　　90. Nothing is new in commodities! The game does not change and neither does human nature.

　　期货交易里没有什么新东西！游戏没有变；人性也没有变。

 

　　91. In a bear market, it is always wise to cover if complete demoralization suddenly develops.

　　在熊市里，一旦突然全场士气低落，你最好赶快平仓。

 

　　92. The principles of successful commodity speculation is based on the supposition that people will continue in the future to make the mistakes that they have made in the past.

　　成功的期货投机，其原理建立在这样的假设上：人们在未来会重犯他们在过去犯过的错误。

 

　　93. In a bull market and particularly in booms, the public at first makes money, which it later looses simply by overstaying the bull market.

　　在牛市里，特别是在高峰的时候，公众最初赢钱，然后就因为在牛市里停留太长，而全输了回去。

 

 

　　94. A bull market needs to be fed every day ， a bear market only once a week.

　　牛市需要每天为它提供给养；熊市只需要一个星期为它提供一次给养。

 

　　95. Never underestimate how much time is necessary to wash out a market that is long.

　　不要过低估量需要多少时间清洗一个看多的市场。

 

　　96. Never buy the first rally and never sell the first break.

　　不要在第一次回升时买进，也不要在第一次下跌时卖出。

 

　　97. Be advised that it is better to be more interested in the market's reaction to new information than in the piece of news itself.

　　最好是记住，与其对一则新闻本身感兴趣，不如对市场对该则新消息的反应感兴趣。

 

　　98. Don't diversify ， concentrate on a few commodities. More diversity reduces amount you can speculate with. Also too much to watch.

　　不要撒芝麻在几种商品上。分布过散会减少你能用以投机的数量。况且要看管的太多。

 

　　99. Don't pioneer highs or lows. Let the market tell you a high or low has been made.

　　不要在高处或低处打冲锋。让市场告诉你什么是新高或新低。

 

　　100. Keep some perspective. Trees don't grow to the sky. Values don't go to zero. What are histories and recent highs and lows， Loan levels， Loans are not necessarily price floors. CCC selling prices aren't necessarily price ceilings.

　　持有你自己的观点。树木长不到天空那么高，价值不会跌到等于零。贷款不一定就是价格的底部。商品信用公司（CCC）的销售价不一定就是价格的顶部。

 

　　101. "If you get in on Jones' tip; get out on Jones' tip". If you are riding another person's idea, ride it all the way.

　　"如果你是根据张三的小道消息走进市场，那就按照张三的小道消息走出市场"。如果你是依赖别人的主意行事，那就按照他的主意走到底。

 

　　102. Run early or not at all. Don't be an eleven o'clock bull or a five o'clock bear.

　　要么就早跑，要么就别跑。不要做11点钟的牛，或者5点钟的熊。

 

　　103. Woodrow Wilson said, "a governments first priority is to organize the common interest against special interests". Successful traders seek out market opportunities capitalizing on the reality that government's first priority is rarely achieved.

　　伍德儒·威尔逊说过："一个政府的首要任务是把

 

　　107. Disregard all prognostications. In the world of money, which is a world shaped by human behavior, nobody has the foggiest notion of what will happen in the future. Mark that word-nobody! Thus the successful trader bases no moves on what supposedly will happen but reacts instead to what does happen.

　　无视所有的预言。金钱的世界是一个以人的行为勾画出的世界。在金钱世界里，没有一个人对将来会有丝毫的概念。记住这个词的没有一个人。所以，成功的交易者不是把自己的行动建筑在什么是应该发生的上，而是对所发生的事而作出反应。

 

　　108. Worry is not a sickness but a sign of health. If you are not worried, you are not risking enough.

　　担心不是病状，而是健康的标志。如果你不担心，那就说明你承担的风险还不够。

 

　　109. Except in unusual circumstances, get in the habit of taking your profit too soon. Don't torment yourself if a trade continues winning without you. Chances are it won't continue long. If it does console yourself by thinking of all the times when liquidating early preserved gains you would otherwise have lost.

　　除了在不同寻常的情况里，养成早些兑现你的盈利的习惯。不要折磨你自己即使你出来之后那笔交易还在赢钱。非常可能的是这不会延续很长。即使这种情况继续下去，想一想所有由于你提前平仓而避免了失去既得盈利的场合。

 

　　110. When the ship starts to sink, don't pray-jump!

　　一旦船开始下沉，不要祈祷--跳船！

 

　　111. Life never happens in a straight line. Any adult knows this. But we can too easily be hypnotized into forgetting it when contemplating a chart. Beware of the chartist's illusion.

　　生活从来就不是一条直线。每一个成年人都知道这一点。可是，当我们在观看图表时太容易被引导得忘掉这一点。警惕图表制作者创造的幻觉。

 

　　112. Optimism means expecting the best, but confidence means knowing how you will handle the worst. Never make a move if you are merely optimistic.

　　乐观主义意味着期望最好的情况发生。自信心意味着知道一旦最坏的情况发生你会怎样处理。如果你只是乐观而已，千万不要轻举妄动。

 

　　113. Whatever you do, whether you bet with the herd or against, think it through independently first.

　　不管你做什么，不管你是随流而下还是逆流而上，首先对你要做的事作一独立的思考。

 

　　114. Repeatedly reevaluate your open positions. Keep asking yourself: would I put my money into this if it were presented to me for the first time today? Is this trade progressing toward the ending position I envisioned?

　　反复地重新衡量你的持仓头寸。不断地问自己：如果这是我今天第一次才看到的，我会投钱进去吗？这手交易是不是在向我想象的方向发展？

 

　　115. It is a safe bet that the money lost by (short term) speculation is small compared with the gigantic sums lost by those who let their investments "ride". Long term investors are the biggest gamblers as after they make a trade they often times stay with it and end up losing it all. The intelligent trader will . By acting promptly-hold losses to a minimum.

　　可以这么说，比起那些让他们的投资"随波逐流"的人所损失的巨额款项来，（短线）的投机所损失的还是小数目。长线投资者在进入交易之后，常常待着不走而最终全都输掉。在这种意义上，他们是最大的赌博者。智慧的交易者，通过及时采取行动，把损失限制在最小的范围内。

 

　　116. As a rule of thumb good trend lines should touch at least three previous highs or lows. The more points the line catches, the better the line.

　　实际经验证明，一条可信的市场动向曲线应当至少三次碰到先前的高峰点或低谷点。一条曲线能抓住的接触点越多，这条曲线就越可信。

 

　　117. Volume and open interest are as important to the technician as price.

　　对技术分析来说，交易量和持仓量同价格一样重要。

 

　　118. The clearest and easiest way to determine a trend is from previous highs and lows. Higher highs and higher lows mark an uptrend, lower highs and lower lows mark a downtrend.

　　确定市场动向的最清楚和最容易的方法是根据旧高和旧低。高于旧高和旧低标志着向上的走向，低于旧高和旧低标志着朝下的走向。

 

　　119. Don't sell a quiet market after a fall because a low volume sell－off is actually a very bullish situation.

　　不要在一个刚经过跌落的安静的市场里卖。因为低流量的跌市实际上是一个非常看多的处境。

 

　　120. Prices are made in the minds of men, not in the soybean field: fear and greed can temporarily drive prices far beyond their so called real value.

　　价格是在人的头脑里订出来的，而不是在大豆田里订出来的。恐惧和贪婪可以把价格暂时推到远离所谓的实际价格之外。

 

　　121. When the market breaks through a weekly or monthly high, it is a buy signal. When it breaks through the previous weekly or monthly low, it is a sell signal.

　　当市场穿过一个星期或一个月的高位时，这是买的信号。当它穿过前一星期或前一月低位时，这是卖的信号。

 

　　122. Every sunken ship has a chart.

　　没有一艘沉船是不备有图表的。

 

　　123. Take a trading break. A break will give you a detached view of the market and a fresh look at yourself and the way you want to trade for the next several weeks.

　　在交易之中不妨找个时间休息一下。休息一下可以让你站在另一个角度上来看一看市场，让你重新看一看你自己以及你在以后几个星期内想用的交易方法。

 

　　124. Assimilate into your very bones a set of trading rules that works for you.

　　让你每根骨头的骨髓里都渗透一套对你有用的交易规则。

 

　　125. The final phase in a bull move is an accelerated runaway near the top. In this phase, the market always makes you believe that you have underestimated the potential bull market. The temptation to continue pyramiding your position is strong as profits have now swelled to the point that you believe your account can stand any setback. It is imperative at this juncture to take profits on your pyramids and reduce the position back to base levels. The base position is then liquidated when it becomes apparent that the move has ended.

　　一个牛市运动的最后阶段是一场接近顶部的加速赛跑。在这一阶段，市场总是让你相信你低估了潜在的牛市。随着盈利膨胀到让你相信你的账户可以对付任何挫折，继续堆砌你的头寸金字塔的诱惑强大。在这关键的时候，要紧的是从你的金字塔上拿走你的盈利，把你的头寸减少到基本水平。随后，当这一运动变得显然结束了时，将这基本头寸也平仓。